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Interpreting complex time series forecasting models is challenging due to the temporal dependencies between time steps and the dynamic relevance of input features over time. Existing interpretation methods are limited by focusing mostly on classification tasks, evaluating using custom baseline models instead of the latest time series models, using simple synthetic datasets, and requiring training another model. We introduce a novel interpretation method, Windowed Temporal Saliency Rescaling (WinTSR) addressing these limitations. WinTSR explicitly captures temporal dependencies among the past time steps and efficiently scales the feature importance with this time importance. We benchmark WinTSR against 10 recent interpretation techniques with 5 state-of-the-art deep-learning models of different architectures, including a time series foundation model. We use 3 real-world datasets for both time-series classification and regression. Our comprehensive analysis shows that WinTSR significantly outranks the other local interpretation methods in overall performance. Finally, we provide a novel and open-source framework to interpret the latest time series transformers and foundation models. 

Considering the difficulty of financial time series forecasting in financial aid, much of the current research focuses on leveraging big data analytics in financial services. One modern approach is to utilize ”predictive analysis”, analogous to forecasting financial trends. However, many of these time series data in Financial Aid (FA) pose unique challenges due to limited historical datasets and high dimensional financial information, which hinder the development of effective predictive models that balance accuracy with efficient runtime and memory usage. Pre-trained foundation models are employed to address these challenging tasks. We use state-of-the-art time series models including pre-trained LLMs (GPT-2 as the backbone), transformers, and linear models to demonstrate their ability to outperform traditional approaches, even with minimal (”few-shot”) or no fine-tuning (”zero-shot”). Our benchmark study, which includes financial aid with seven other time series tasks, shows the potential of using LLMs for scarce financial datasets. 

Abstract We employed several algorithms with high efficacy to analyze the public transcriptomic data, aiming to identify key transcription factors (TFs) that regulate regeneration inArabidopsis thaliana. Initially, we utilized CollaborativeNet, also known as TF-Cluster, to construct a collaborative network of all TFs, which was subsequently decomposed into many subnetworks using the Triple-Link and Compound Spring Embedder (CoSE) algorithms. Functional analysis of these subnetworks led to the identification of nine subnetworks closely associated with regeneration. We further applied principal component analysis and gene ontology (GO) enrichment analysis to reduce the subnetworks from nine to three, namely subnetworks 1, 12, and 17. Searching for TF-binding sites in the promoters of the co-expressed and co-regulated (CCGs) genes of all TFs in these three subnetworks and Triple-Gene Mutual Interaction analysis of TFs in these three subnetworks with the CCGs involved in regeneration enabled us to rank the TFs in each subnetwork. Finally, six potential candidate TFs—WOX9A, LEC2, PGA37, WIP5, PEI1, and AIL1 from subnetwork 1—were identified, and their roles in somatic embryogenesis (GO:0010262) and regeneration (GO:0031099) were discussed, so were the TFs in Subnetwork 12 and 17 associated with regeneration. The TFs identified were also assessed using the CIS-BP database and Expression Atlas. Our analyses suggest some novel TFs that may have regulatory roles in regeneration and embryogenesis and provide valuable data and insights into the regulatory mechanisms related to regeneration. The tools and the procedures used here are instrumental for analyzing high-throughput transcriptomic data and advancing our understanding of the regulation of various biological processes of interest. 

Deep Learning for Time-series plays a key role in AI for healthcare. To predict the progress of infectious disease outbreaks and demonstrate clear population-level impact, more granular analyses are urgently needed that control for important and potentially confounding county-level socioeconomic and health factors. We forecast US county-level COVID-19 infections using the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT). We focus on heterogeneous time-series deep learning model prediction while interpreting the complex spatiotemporal features learned from the data. The significance of the work is grounded in a real-world COVID-19 infection prediction with highly non-stationary, finely granular, and heterogeneous data. 1) Our model can capture the detailed daily changes of temporal and spatial model behaviors and achieves better prediction performance compared to other time-series models. 2) We analyzed the attention patterns from TFT to interpret the temporal and spatial patterns learned by the model. 3) We collected around 2.5 years of socioeconomic and health features for 3142 US counties, such as observed cases, and a number of static (age distribution and health disparity) and dynamic features (vaccination, disease spread, transmissible cases, and social distancing). Using the proposed framework, we have shown that our model can learn complex interactions. Interpreting different impacts at the county level would be crucial for understanding the infection process that can help effective public health decision-making. 

Abstract Four statistical selection methods for inferring transcription factor (TF)–target gene (TG) pairs were developed by coupling mean squared error (MSE) or Huber loss function, with elastic net (ENET) or least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) penalty. Two methods were also developed for inferring pathway gene regulatory networks (GRNs) by combining Huber or MSE loss function with a network (Net)-based penalty. To solve these regressions, we ameliorated an accelerated proximal gradient descent (APGD) algorithm to optimize parameter selection processes, resulting in an equally effective but much faster algorithm than the commonly used convex optimization solver. The synthetic data generated in a general setting was used to test four TF–TG identification methods, ENET-based methods performed better than Lasso-based methods. Synthetic data generated from two network settings was used to test Huber-Net and MSE-Net, which outperformed all other methods. The TF–TG identification methods were also tested with SND1 and gl3 overexpression transcriptomic data, Huber-ENET and MSE-ENET outperformed all other methods when genome-wide predictions were performed. The TF–TG identification methods fill the gap of lacking a method for genome-wide TG prediction of a TF, and potential for validating ChIP/DAP-seq results, while the two Net-based methods are instrumental for predicting pathway GRNs.